Covid-19 Science

The science behind the global response to the Covid-19 pandemic

Were the scientists sleeping?

By Juergen Ude : 15th February 2021

The human response to the idea of a deadly airborne respiratory virus may have had significant effects. Deaths may have been caused, not by the virus, but the unavailability of hospital beds because elective surgeries had been cancelled. Many people refused to check themselves into hospitals for fear of the virus which resulted in deaths. What about the fear of death? To be told one may have contracted a very deadly virus may be a terrible shock for many. How many people died or became sick because they believed death was near or even certain? Did we consider the impact of fear on human health? Was this even considered? This is an area that needs more research.

The snippet called “Have lockdowns in the UK resulted in 3 times and more deaths than actual covid-19 deaths?” is disturbing supporting the above possibilities.

We may need to accept that human failures in terms of non-rational responses and general incompetence occur in all professions and may have impacted the course of the pandemic and influenced the outcomes, including in terms of negative health outcomes and deaths. Decisions by doctors and public health advisors may have been inadvertently causal for death due to inadequate scientific information or understanding. Such circumstances may have varied between countries. When doctors are convinced of the deadliness of a respiratory airborne virus, is it not possible that their responses and treatments may cause more problems than the actual harm of the virus itself?

Referring to the table below we noted that for the first European wave those European countries with unusual, registered deaths had lags between case peaks and death peaks much less than expected 21+ or so days. Those that did not have high deaths had the expected lag. That implies that many people died because they checked themselves in too late, possibly through reluctance to go to hospital or overwhelming. If the latter, then we needed to merely increase temporary capacity and shared medical resources instead of destroying lives. There may be other reasons which other experts are better qualified than us can suggest.

According to the following source and others it takes around 3 weeks +/- to die once catching the disease and 5 days less from diagnosis as it takes on average 5 days for symptoms to appear.

The coronavirus death lag explained: How it can take three weeks between catching the disease and being hospitalised (and three days for the NHS to record the fatality)

Table 11 provides a visual perspective of the time lag between reporting positive cases and deaths for countries. These happen to be the USA and European countries extensively reported in the media.

The red bars are for deaths. Because death numbers were so high the scale for deaths was increased to make the bars visible.

Table 11.1 Comparing Countries with excess deaths and without excess deaths from the list that received extensive coverage by the media.

COUNTRIES WITH EXCESS DEATHS
COUNTRIES WITHOUT EXCESS DEATHS
Belgium
BIS.Net Analyst Change Analysis used in the analysis of Covid-19 cases
Australia
BIS.Net Analyst Change Analysis used in the analysis of Covid-19 cases
Italy
BIS.Net Analyst Change Analysis used in the analysis of Covid-19 cases
Austria
BIS.Net Analyst Change Analysis used in the analysis of Covid-19 cases
Spain
BIS.Net Analyst Change Analysis used in the analysis of Covid-19 cases
Germany
BIS.Net Analyst Change Analysis used in the analysis of Covid-19 cases
Netherlands
BIS.Net Analyst Change Analysis used in the analysis of Covid-19 cases
Norway
BIS.Net Analyst Change Analysis used in the analysis of Covid-19 cases
United Kingdom
BIS.Net Analyst Change Analysis used in the analysis of Covid-19 cases
United States
BIS.Net Analyst Change Analysis used in the analysis of Covid-19 cases

Table 11.1 conclusively shows that there is a highly significant difference in lags between cases and deaths for the European countries that have received considerable media coverage. The first column shows the case and death peaks have much smaller differences than the second column.

There is some factor at play that should have been investigated by experts. It seems more than a coincidence that those countries with excess deaths had tiny lags between the peak of cases and reported deaths.

Covid-19 Analysis Report

Download the 40,000+ word analysis report on the science behind the response to the pandemic. AND/OR download the Open Letter attentioned to the world leaders.

* The information is dependent on the reliability of the information sources. Links have been given throughout for the reader to verify the contents. There has been no use of models made to prove points. Readers can download data from https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-testing and perform the analysis independently. Many charts use our own technology to display underlying trends and scatter. More information on our technology please visit https://www.bisnetanalyst.com/knowledge-center

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Dr Juergen Ude has a certificate in applied chemistry, a degree in applied science majoring in statistics and operations research as top student, a masters in economics with high distinctions in every subject, and a PhD in computer modelling and algorithms. He has lectured at Monash University on subjects of data analysis, computer modelling, and quality & reliability.

Prior to founding his own company (Qtech International Pty Ltd), Dr Ude worked as a statistician and operations researcher for 18 years in management roles having saved employers millions of dollars through his AI and ML algorithms. Through Qtech International, Dr Ude has developed data analysis solutions in over 40 countries for leading corporations such as Alcoa, Black and Decker, Coca-Cola Amatil, US Vision and many more. Additionally he has developed campaign analysis software for politicians.