Covid-19 Science

The science behind the global response to the Covid-19 pandemic

The futility of Victoria’s zero case target?

By Juergen Ude : 15th February 2021

Victorians have been locked up on and off since early 2020. Initially experts confirmed that the objective of lockdown was only to spread the curve, never to eliminate it. This was to reduce overwhelming of hospitals, especially ICU bed demands

BIS.Net Analyst Change Analysis used in Covid-19 analysis

After the first of at least two quarantining mismanagements by the Victorian State, the Victorian government decided on a destroying the curve strategy, i.e., zero cases.

Such a strategy requires a far longer time to achieve, as the above image shows (the flatter the curve the longer the public must endure ‘pain’ and the greater the human cost).

Such a strategy is unsustainable and why most countries did not follow this strategy. There is a very simple theoretical reason. If we assume the theoretical curve (A Gaussian probability distribution) then the closer the curve gets to zero, the longer the curve gets, and Victorians will need to be subjected to permanent loss of freedom.

According to our analysis only islands have managed to have long runs of zero cases. The reason is obvious. Australia is an isolated island and it can achieve zero cases, unlike the Americas, Asia, Middle East, and Europe. But only if it closes its borders permanently to everyone outsider. No more exports, no more imports. Already we are seeing cases from overseas travellers, which has led to a new lockdown and a repeat of state border closures.

It is also not possible to ever be sure that zero cases have been attained due to sampling laws. When infections are low testing will not find the sparse infections, which then smoulder and suddenly flare up.

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* The information is dependent on the reliability of the information sources. Links have been given throughout for the reader to verify the contents. There has been no use of models made to prove points. Readers can download data from and perform the analysis independently. Many charts use our own technology to display underlying trends and scatter. More information on our technology please visit


Dr Juergen Ude has a certificate in applied chemistry, a degree in applied science majoring in statistics and operations research as top student, a masters in economics with high distinctions in every subject, and a PhD in computer modelling and algorithms. He has lectured at Monash University on subjects of data analysis, computer modelling, and quality & reliability.

Prior to founding his own company (Qtech International Pty Ltd), Dr Ude worked as a statistician and operations researcher for 18 years in management roles having saved employers millions of dollars through his AI and ML algorithms. Through Qtech International, Dr Ude has developed data analysis solutions in over 40 countries for leading corporations such as Alcoa, Black and Decker, Coca-Cola Amatil, US Vision and many more. Additionally he has developed campaign analysis software for politicians.