The UK at one stage had 20 million Covid-19 infections and recently 3 million. Victoria, Australia with only 6 million people at one stage had 120, 000 cases?

Yes, there is high likelihood. The problem is that cases are dependent on test numbers and hence test numbers need to be factored in. This is done by reporting case positivity or proportions. Proportions are an estimate of prevalence. When this estimate is used then we do get such high numbers. With such high numbers one must ask why have there not been more hospital presentations if the virus is so harmful?

Of course, this estimate is crude because testing is not scientific for prevalence determination. It is highly biased. Also, there is a delay between a test and when the results become available which distorts the prevalence estimate somewhat. Early in a pandemic the estimate is less accurate because test numbers are lower, however once test numbers are large the error is less.

Are the estimates reasonable? For the flu there are over a billion global cases. In Australia more than half the population (12 million) suffer with a common cold each year, up to 3 times. The common cold virus (actually several) is the most prevalent infectious virus. The corona virus is of the same family as the common cold.

Covid-19 Analysis Report

Download the 40,000+ word analysis report on the science behind the response to the pandemic. AND/OR download the Open Letter attentioned to the world leaders.