Covid-19 Science

The science behind the global response to the Covid-19 pandemic

Have lockdowns in the UK resulted in 3 times and more deaths than actual covid-19 deaths?

By Juergen Ude : 15th February 2021

We will never be able to prove this, but here are some disturbing facts.

According to the UK government, through a report published by the SAGE (1) the death toll of the pandemic is almost double the death toll of reported deaths. The Covid Medical Network and Qtech International and many others have long warned about the dangers of causing deaths through lockdown.

Reported UK deaths at the time of the report have been 103,000 people. However, these statistics cannot be relied on because they are not based on autopsies. A Corona virus death in the UK (and most countries) is the nonsensical definition of “death in a person with a laboratory-confirmed positive COVID-19 test and died within (equal to or less than) 28 days of the first positive specimen date”.

So, if we decided a pimple death is a death that has occurred with anyone that has had a pimple within the last 28 days suddenly pimples will be highly deadly. These definitions defy scientific logic.

Our analysis provides a disturbing picture. Comparing total registered deaths for all of 2020 in the UK, with the average of the previous 5 years (to obtain an accurate baseline for comparison) the increase in registered deaths is 77000, nowhere near as high as reported ‘pimple’ deaths.

Just because the excess occurred in the Covid-19 year does not mean they are all deaths cause by covid-19.

The SAGE report estimates that hospital Chaos has led to 46000 avoidable deaths by ‘end of next month’. The report was dated 17th of December 2020 and hence we can assume this number applies to 2020. This leaves excess deaths at 77000-46000=31000 for 2020. Let us assume that this value is equal to deaths of people that truly died due to covid-19.

Coronavirus deaths: 31000

We then have the following estimates using information from the SAGE report referred in here - Government estimates 220,000 will be the true death toll of the pandemic - with nearly half lost to non-Covid causes such as cancelled operations

Hospital chaos avoidable deaths: 46000

Cancellations of routine operations: 18000

Economic impact of lockdown: 40000

TOTAL: 104000

What this means is because of lockdown and other mitigation actions we have added three times as many deaths as estimated Corona virus caused deaths.

But it is not so simple. How many deaths were caused by fear when a frail patient was told they had the deadliest virus ‘in the history of mankind’. This possibility is discussed in the snippet called “Where were the psychologists?” So, we may have even caused more deaths because we did not manage fear.

(1) The document, dated December 17 and published yesterday by the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), was drawn up by civil servants at the Department of Health, the Office for National Statistics and the Home Office

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* The information is dependent on the reliability of the information sources. Links have been given throughout for the reader to verify the contents. There has been no use of models made to prove points. Readers can download data from EuroStat and perform the analysis independently. Many charts use our own technology to display underlying trends and scatter. More information on our technology please visit https://www.bisnetanalyst.com/knowledge-center

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Dr Juergen Ude has a certificate in applied chemistry, a degree in applied science majoring in statistics and operations research as top student, a masters in economics with high distinctions in every subject, and a PhD in computer modelling and algorithms. He has lectured at Monash University on subjects of data analysis, computer modelling, and quality & reliability.

Prior to founding his own company (Qtech International Pty Ltd), Dr Ude worked as a statistician and operations researcher for 18 years in management roles having saved employers millions of dollars through his AI and ML algorithms. Through Qtech International, Dr Ude has developed data analysis solutions in over 40 countries for leading corporations such as Alcoa, Black and Decker, Coca-Cola Amatil, US Vision and many more. Additionally he has developed campaign analysis software for politicians.