Covid-19 Science

The science behind the global response to the Covid-19 pandemic

Why are the alleged highly contagious Kent virus infections coming down in the UK? Vaccine?

By Juergen Ude : 14th February 2021

Figure 1 Shows the daily new cases for UK up to February 3rd 2021

BIS.Net Analyst Change Analysis used in Covid-19 analysis
Figure 1: Daily new cases for UK up to February 3rd 2021.

However, because case numbers are dependent on test numbers such display of infections is unscientific. Please note how the first wave was dwarfed by the second and third wave (includes Kent)

Figure 2 are % case positives which have factored in test numbers.

BIS.Net Analyst Change Analysis used in Covid-19 analysis
Figure 2: % Case positives for UK up to February 3rd, 2021.

Please note that now the first wave dwarfs the second and third wave, as expected if we believe immunity has been created during the first wave. If we treat case positivity as an estimate of prevalence, then it does appear that 30% of the UK population has had prior immunity.

Case positivity is only a crude estimate of prevalence because testing is very biased. However, with the large number of tests it should be sufficiently accurate.

The question asked is has the vaccination to date had an impact on infections in the UK?

The answer will not be conclusive because vaccination has only recently started, but we will try to obtain an insight into a possible effect or absence of effect.

Figure 3 shows the cumulative number of vaccinated people extracted from the Covid-19 vaccination programme in the United Kingdom - Wikipedia on the 14th of Feb 2021

BIS.Net Analyst Change Analysis used in Covid-19 analysis
Figure 3: Cumulative number of vaccinated people extracted from the COVID-19 vaccination programme in the United Kingdom - Wikipedia on the 14th of Feb 2021
BIS.Net Analyst Change Analysis used in Covid-19 analysis
Figure 4 Case positivity’s for the same period.

Referring to Figure 4, case positivity peaked on the 29th of December 2020. At that stage only one million people were vaccinated, which is 1.5% of the population. Thereafter infections came steadily down with no change in slope even though vaccinations increased 13 times as much during the same period. We would have expected a change in slope. Instead, we observe no change in slope which is consistent with observations throughout the analysis whenever cases came down, even without intervention.

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* The information is dependent on the reliability of the information sources. Links have been given throughout for the reader to verify the contents. There has been no use of models made to prove points. Readers can download data from https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-testing and perform the analysis independently. Many charts use our own technology to display underlying trends and scatter. More information on our technology please visit https://www.bisnetanalyst.com/knowledge-center

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Dr Juergen Ude has a certificate in applied chemistry, a degree in applied science majoring in statistics and operations research as top student, a masters in economics with high distinctions in every subject, and a PhD in computer modelling and algorithms. He has lectured at Monash University on subjects of data analysis, computer modelling, and quality & reliability.

Prior to founding his own company (Qtech International Pty Ltd), Dr Ude worked as a statistician and operations researcher for 18 years in management roles having saved employers millions of dollars through his AI and ML algorithms. Through Qtech International, Dr Ude has developed data analysis solutions in over 40 countries for leading corporations such as Alcoa, Black and Decker, Coca-Cola Amatil, US Vision and many more. Additionally he has developed campaign analysis software for politicians.