How much more lethal is the Kent virus really?
According to reports the Kent Virus could be up to 70% more contagious and 30% more lethal than other countries.
"Kent coronavirus variant set to ‘sweep world’, says UK scientist"
Figure 1 show reported deaths for the United Kingdom as at end of 2020
Figure 1: Reported Deaths for the United Kingdom as at end of 2020
Reported Deaths are slightly higher than for the first wave.
Figure 2 shows case positivity for the UK as at end of 2020
Figure 2 Case positivity for the UK as at end of 2020
Infections were much higher in the UK during the first wave. We would thus expect deaths to be much higher in the first wave. However reported deaths were higher in the last wave, implying the Kent virus is deadlier.
Figure 3 shows total registered deaths for England and Wales(1) using a distribution Optimized Hybrid SPC Chart(2). This chart was validated with data for the UK from an alternative data source.
Figure 3 Hybrid Distribution Optimized SPC Chart for Total Deaths for England and Wales as at end of 2020
The registered deaths show that there was a high number of deaths during the first wave! But There is no evidence of an unusual number of deaths at the time of the second and third wave.
This supports the case positivity data but contradicts the reported deaths. One explanation is that reported deaths are not scientific due to the definition of covid-19 deaths which is based on dying with, not from Covid-19
The reader can decide if the Kent virus is more deadly justifying the worldwide panic and further destruction of human lives.
Interestingly:-
(1) Please note figures are provisional
(2) Some scientists calculate excess deaths, based on models. These add components of error. Hybrid control charts are data driven. What you see is what you have.
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