Covid-19 Science

The science behind the global response to the Covid-19 pandemic

How much more lethal is the Kent virus really?

By Juergen Ude : 12th February 2021

According to reports the Kent Virus could be up to 70% more contagious and 30% more lethal than other countries.

"Kent coronavirus variant set to ‘sweep world’, says UK scientist"

Figure 1 show reported deaths for the United Kingdom as at end of 2020

BIS.Net Analyst Change Analysis used in Covid-19 analysis
Figure 1: Reported Deaths for the United Kingdom as at end of 2020

Reported Deaths are slightly higher than for the first wave.

Figure 2 shows case positivity for the UK as at end of 2020

BIS.Net Analyst Change Analysis used in Covid-19 analysis
Figure 2 Case positivity for the UK as at end of 2020

Infections were much higher in the UK during the first wave. We would thus expect deaths to be much higher in the first wave. However reported deaths were higher in the last wave, implying the Kent virus is deadlier.

Figure 3 shows total registered deaths for England and Wales(1) using a distribution Optimized Hybrid SPC Chart(2). This chart was validated with data for the UK from an alternative data source.

BIS.Net Analyst Change Analysis used in Covid-19 analysis
Figure 3 Hybrid Distribution Optimized SPC Chart for Total Deaths for England and Wales as at end of 2020

The registered deaths show that there was a high number of deaths during the first wave! But There is no evidence of an unusual number of deaths at the time of the second and third wave.

This supports the case positivity data but contradicts the reported deaths. One explanation is that reported deaths are not scientific due to the definition of covid-19 deaths which is based on dying with, not from Covid-19

The reader can decide if the Kent virus is more deadly justifying the worldwide panic and further destruction of human lives.

Interestingly:-

“According to research published on Dec 29, 2020, by the UK Health Agency Public Health England, the new variant appears to be no worse than the previous dominant strain of SARS-CoV-2 in terms of the risk of hospital admission, severity of illness, or mortality.”

"February 12th 2021 - New variant of SARS-CoV-2 in UK causes surge of COVID-19"

(1) Please note figures are provisional
(2) Some scientists calculate excess deaths, based on models. These add components of error. Hybrid control charts are data driven. What you see is what you have.

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* The information is dependent on the reliability of the information sources. Links have been given throughout for the reader to verify the contents. There has been no use of models made to prove points. Readers can download data on registered weekly deaths in the UK from https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales and perform the analysis independently. Many charts use our own technology to display underlying trends and scatter. More information on our technology please visit https://www.bisnetanalyst.com/knowledge-center

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Dr Juergen Ude has a certificate in applied chemistry, a degree in applied science majoring in statistics and operations research as top student, a masters in economics with high distinctions in every subject, and a PhD in computer modelling and algorithms. He has lectured at Monash University on subjects of data analysis, computer modelling, and quality & reliability.

Prior to founding his own company (Qtech International Pty Ltd), Dr Ude worked as a statistician and operations researcher for 18 years in management roles having saved employers millions of dollars through his AI and ML algorithms. Through Qtech International, Dr Ude has developed data analysis solutions in over 40 countries for leading corporations such as Alcoa, Black and Decker, Coca-Cola Amatil, US Vision and many more. Additionally he has developed campaign analysis software for politicians.