Covid-19 Science

The science behind the global response to the Covid-19 pandemic

Why are the alleged highly contagious Kent Virus infections coming down in the UK? Lockdown?

By Juergen Ude : 14th February 2021

Figure 1 Shows the daily new cases for UK up to February 3rd 2021

BIS.Net Analyst Change Analysis used in Covid-19 analysis
Figure 1: Daily new cases for UK up to February 3rd 2021.

However, because case numbers are dependent on test numbers such display of infections is unscientific. Please note how first wave was dwarfed by the second and third wave (includes Kent)

Figure 2 are % case positives which have factored in test numbers.

BIS.Net Analyst Change Analysis used in Covid-19 analysis
Figure 2: % Case positives for UK up to February 3rd, 2021.

Please note that first wave dwarfs the second and third wave, as expected if we believe immunity has been created during the first wave, which Dr Michael Yeadon, ex-Pfizer VP asserted. If we treat case positivity as an estimate of prevalence, then it does appear that 30% of the UK population has had prior immunity as alleged by numerous world-leading clinical immunologists according to Dr. Michael Yeadon. Covid vaccine: No need for vaccines, Covid effectively over: Ex-Pfizer VP, Health News, ET HealthWorld (

Case positivity is only a crude estimate of prevalence because testing is very biased. However, with the large number of tests it may be sufficiently accurate.

The question asked is have lock down had an impact on infections in the UK?

The answer will not be conclusive because the UK has different systems, in England, Wales, Scotland.

Due to the sheer amount of data analysed, at this stage we only managed to analyse UK data, not England alone, and hence superimposing lockdown information will have some error, but in our judgement only small.

Figure 3 shows the two lockdown periods for ENGLAND superimposed on UK data.

BIS.Net Analyst Change Analysis used in Covid-19 analysis
Figure 3 shows the two lockdown periods for ENGLAND superimposed on UK data.

The first lockdown was relatively mild, with schools not being closed. Both lockdowns occurred slightly after the peaks. The orange lines show where an effect would have been expected.

England also applied a tier system after lockdown (1)

Both lockdowns started AFTER cases were already coming down. There was no change around the time where a change would have been expected.

As scientists we will not conclude lockdown made a difference.

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Dr Juergen Ude has a certificate in applied chemistry, a degree in applied science majoring in statistics and operations research as top student, a masters in economics with high distinctions in every subject, and a PhD in computer modelling and algorithms. He has lectured at Monash University on subjects of data analysis, computer modelling, and quality & reliability.

Prior to founding his own company (Qtech International Pty Ltd), Dr Ude worked as a statistician and operations researcher for 18 years in management roles having saved employers millions of dollars through his AI and ML algorithms. Through Qtech International, Dr Ude has developed data analysis solutions in over 40 countries for leading corporations such as Alcoa, Black and Decker, Coca-Cola Amatil, US Vision and many more. Additionally he has developed campaign analysis software for politicians.