Covid-19 Science

The science behind the global response to the Covid-19 pandemic

Is one death unacceptable?

By Juergen Ude : 13th February 2021

Victoria, Australia has made it clear that the current level of deaths, including just one death, mainly from age care are unacceptable.

All deaths must be accepted. We all die. Deaths saved now, will occur later. Deaths not saved now will mean less deaths later. No one disputes that if we can save a life now then we must try, but at what human cost?

Figure 1 is a Hybrid SPC Chart for total registered monthly deaths in Victoria. The chart shows underlying changes in the current average and outliers.

BIS.Net Analyst Hybrid SPC Chart used in Covid-19 analysis
Figure 1 Hybrid SPC Chart for Victorian Registered deaths by month till January 2021

Victoria’s deaths have not been influenced by monthly registered deaths.

In Victoria, August had the worst month of Covid-19 deaths, with approx. 450 reported deaths. The registered deaths for August are shown at the black line. As is clear, the alleged Covid-19 deaths are not reflected by registered deaths. The 450 alleged deaths due to Covid19 are nothing relative to the monthly total deaths normally accounted. Unlike some other countries, such as the USA and the UK, Victoria’s alleged Covid-19 deaths made no difference to total deaths. It thus makes no sense to say one death unacceptable, when 450 alleged deaths had no effect on total deaths. Did Victorians suffer for an unrealistic target of zero deaths?

The word alleged was used several times. Covid-19 deaths are not scientifically defined. A Covid-19 death does not mean that a person died with it. ‘Dying from’ has been conflated with ‘dying with’ the SARS CoV-2 virus, which is unscientific and misleading. Hence the 450 people that died may not have died because of the virus, just with it. That would explain no effect on the total registered deaths.

The Hybrid SPC chart also shows that from 2016 onwards there have been an extra 400 deaths monthly. That is a total of 4800 deaths each year and almost 20000 extra deaths since the beginning of 2016.

Why was this increase not deemed unacceptable and why was this not investigated? If it has not been noticed, then Why Not - if one death is unacceptable?

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* The information is dependent on the reliability of the information sources. Links have been given throughout for the reader to verify the contents. There has been no use of models made to prove points. Readers can download data from https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-testing and perform the analysis independently. Many charts use our own technology to display underlying trends and scatter. More information on our technology please visit https://www.bisnetanalyst.com/knowledge-center

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Dr Juergen Ude has a certificate in applied chemistry, a degree in applied science majoring in statistics and operations research as top student, a masters in economics with high distinctions in every subject, and a PhD in computer modelling and algorithms. He has lectured at Monash University on subjects of data analysis, computer modelling, and quality & reliability.

Prior to founding his own company (Qtech International Pty Ltd), Dr Ude worked as a statistician and operations researcher for 18 years in management roles having saved employers millions of dollars through his AI and ML algorithms. Through Qtech International, Dr Ude has developed data analysis solutions in over 40 countries for leading corporations such as Alcoa, Black and Decker, Coca-Cola Amatil, US Vision and many more. Additionally he has developed campaign analysis software for politicians.