Truth Behind The Science

The science behind the global response to the Covid-19 pandemic

How much more contagious is the Kent virus really?

By Juergen Ude : 12th February 2021

According to reports, the Kent Virus could be up to 70% more contagious and 30% more lethal than other countries.

"Kent coronavirus variant set to ‘sweep world’, says UK scientist"

Countries such as Australia and States such as Victoria have gone in a state of panic where lockdowns are instigated because of one or two cases once again causing unbearable stress for many. The justification is the firm belief in the deadliness of the virus which globally has killed 2 in 10000 people (if we can believe the reported deaths numbers which have no scientific basis.)

How has the contagiousness been determined? Models

"February 12th 2021 - New variant of SARS-CoV-2 in UK causes surge of COVID-19"

Models are always wrong(1) because it is impossible to define life mathematically. To use models as evidence is unscientific. Evidence MUST BE data driven.

Figure 1 show CASES for the United Kingdom as at 10th February 2021

BIS.Net Analyst Change Analysis used in Covid-19 analysis
Figure 1: Cases for the United Kingdom as at 10th February 2021

The first wave is dwarfed by the second and third waves, the last which includes the Kent Virus. This has resulted in concluding that the Kent Virus is more contagious, and the information has likely influenced models.

However, case reporting is unscientific and highly flawed because case numbers are influenced by testing. Testing numbers have rapidly increased driven by fear in the hope of controlling the virus.

Figure 2 shows CASE POSITIVITY (proportion) for the UK as at 10th February 2021.

BIS.Net Analyst Change Analysis used in Covid-19 analysis
Figure 2: Case positivity (proportion) for the UK as at the 9th February 2021

Because of unavailability of test-data early in the pandemic the first wave is truncated. Now the situation is reversed. By taking test numbers into account the second third waves are a fraction of the first wave. The third wave is slightly higher, but we should not conclude due to higher contagiousness. This is a period where infections are usually higher.

(1) George E. Box - Considered to be one "one of the greatest statistical minds of the 20th century".

Covid-19 Analysis Report

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* The information is dependent on the reliability of the information sources. Links have been given throughout for the reader to verify the contents. There has been no use of models made to prove points. Readers can download data from https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-testing and perform the analysis independently. Many charts use our own technology to display underlying trends and scatter. More information on our technology please visit https://www.bisnetanalyst.com/knowledge-center

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Dr Juergen Ude has a certificate in applied chemistry, a degree in applied science majoring in statistics and operations research as top student, a masters in economics with high distinctions in every subject, and a PhD in computer modelling and algorithms. He has lectured at Monash University on subjects of data analysis, computer modelling, and quality & reliability.

Prior to founding his own company (Qtech International Pty Ltd), Dr Ude worked as a statistician and operations researcher for 18 years in management roles having saved employers millions of dollars through his AI and ML algorithms. Through Qtech International, Dr Ude has developed data analysis solutions in over 40 countries for leading corporations such as Alcoa, Black and Decker, Coca-Cola Amatil, US Vision and many more. Additionally he has developed campaign analysis software for politicians.