Covid-19 Science

The science behind the global response to the Covid-19 pandemic

Throwing a spanner in the vaccination works! Global deaths follow the same pattern as registered deaths in the Northern hemisphere

By Juergen Ude : 21st February 2021

Please review the two charts shown in Figure 1 and Figure 2.

BIS.Net Analyst Change Analysis used in Covid-19 analysis
Figure 1: Reported deaths for all of 2020 to February 19th 2021
BIS.Net Analyst Change Analysis used in Covid-19 analysis
Figure 2: Hybrid SPC Chart for Total Registered Deaths Germany

Figure 2 is an example of the typical pattern of reported deaths for European countries and the USA. There is a peak around December +/-. According to our medical sources these are related to mainly lung related diseases such as pneumonia and the flu. Why these cycles exist is unclear.

If we consider that SARS-CoV-2 had only started affecting reported deaths March, April 2020 then it appears that the reported deaths are following a similar pattern.

Figure 3 shows weekly reported deaths from the 11th of April onwards. Figure 4 shows daily reported deaths for the UK for a similar period 2017-2018.

BIS.Net Analyst Change Analysis used in Covid-19 analysis
Figure 3: Weekly Reported Deaths form 11th April 2020 to February 2021
BIS.Net Analyst Change Analysis used in Covid-19 analysis
Figure 4 Weekly Registered Deaths form 11th April 2017 to February 2018 for UK

The pattern is ominously similar. Of course, the similarity is not exact but is close enough and other registered deaths periods are similar, not just for the UK, but other countries.

It appears that deaths due to SARS-CoV-2 follow the same patterns in a year as respiratory deaths in general. Beyond this a conclusion cannot at this time be made.

The warning is that if the same pattern is followed then we can expect a further reduction until deaths start increasing again and the process starts again.

We must thus not assume that we are over the worst once vaccinations are rolled out. The flu vaccines have not retarded the cycles. Only in one years-time will we have a better picture of the true nature of SARS-CoV-2.

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* The information is dependent on the reliability of the information sources. Links have been given throughout for the reader to verify the contents. There has been no use of models made to prove points. Readers can download data from and perform the analysis independently. Many charts use our own technology to display underlying trends and scatter. More information on our technology please visit


Dr Juergen Ude has a certificate in applied chemistry, a degree in applied science majoring in statistics and operations research as top student, a masters in economics with high distinctions in every subject, and a PhD in computer modelling and algorithms. He has lectured at Monash University on subjects of data analysis, computer modelling, and quality & reliability.

Prior to founding his own company (Qtech International Pty Ltd), Dr Ude worked as a statistician and operations researcher for 18 years in management roles having saved employers millions of dollars through his AI and ML algorithms. Through Qtech International, Dr Ude has developed data analysis solutions in over 40 countries for leading corporations such as Alcoa, Black and Decker, Coca-Cola Amatil, US Vision and many more. Additionally he has developed campaign analysis software for politicians.