Covid-19 Science

The science behind the global response to the Covid-19 pandemic

Australia is the only country that started lockdown after reaching its peak with cases

By Juergen Ude : 13th February 2021

Australia was the only country, that started lockdown after its first peak had reached. Cases were on the way down as shown in Figure 1.

If anything, lockdown slowed down the rate of decrease in cases.

BIS.Net Analyst Change Analysis used in Covid-19 analysis
Figure 1: Australia implementing lock down, after the peak had already been reached.

Other countries started at the beginning of the infection rise, such as Italy, France, and Spain. Figure 2 shows examples. Please note a slowdown kink like Australia’s.

BIS.Net Analyst Change Analysis used in Covid-19 analysis
Figure 2a: Infection polygons for Italy.
BIS.Net Analyst Change Analysis used in Covid-19 analysis
Figure 2b: Infection polygons for Spain.

The first side of the rectangle is when some minor mitigation efforts were put in place and the second full lockdown.

It takes at least 7 days for a mitigation effect to be noticed. Figure 2 shows where the effect of lockdown should have been visible,

BIS.Net Analyst Change Analysis used in Covid-19 analysis
Figure 3: Expected time of effect.

Australia's lockdown strategy meant that an effect would have occurred at the bottom after the peak instead of before.

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Dr Juergen Ude has a certificate in applied chemistry, a degree in applied science majoring in statistics and operations research as top student, a masters in economics with high distinctions in every subject, and a PhD in computer modelling and algorithms. He has lectured at Monash University on subjects of data analysis, computer modelling, and quality & reliability.

Prior to founding his own company (Qtech International Pty Ltd), Dr Ude worked as a statistician and operations researcher for 18 years in management roles having saved employers millions of dollars through his AI and ML algorithms. Through Qtech International, Dr Ude has developed data analysis solutions in over 40 countries for leading corporations such as Alcoa, Black and Decker, Coca-Cola Amatil, US Vision and many more. Additionally he has developed campaign analysis software for politicians.